◈ Baltic Sonar — 2026-10-23

**BALTIC SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF** **Date:** 2026-10-23 **Overall Index:** 45/100 (YELLOW) **Overall Assessment** The Baltic security environment remains elevated but stable. The primary driver of the YELLOW status is widespread electronic warfare (EW) activity targeting navigation systems, compounded by a critical infrastructure routing anomaly in Estonia. No immediate kinetic threat is identified, but hybrid pressure persists. **Most Notable Developments** Significant GNSS degradation has been recorded across multiple coordinates, including (54.2, 22.4), (56.2, 20.5), (55.8, 22.5), (59.8, 26.0), (55.5, 22.6), (54.9, 20.4), and (54.5, 20.5). These disruptions likely impact maritime and aviation navigation. Concurrently, a BGP routing anomaly involving the Estonian Internet Foundation (.ee) was detected, raising concerns regarding digital infrastructure resilience. ASSESSMENT: The simultaneous occurrence of GNSS jamming and internet routing issues suggests a coordinated hybrid operation aimed at degrading regional connectivity and navigation capabilities. **Correlated Clusters** Data indicates strong correlations between Critical Infrastructure and Cyber threats in Lithuania and Latvia. Estonia shows links between Critical Infrastructure and Diplomatic/Weather factors. A multi-state cluster links Naval operations, GNSS EW, and Diplomatic activities. Note: Correlation does not imply causation; these may reflect parallel state activities rather than a single unified campaign. **Narratives Present (Last 7 Days)** Recent discourse focuses on Russian Hybrid Threats & Sabotage (13 items), Diplomatic Pressure & Peace Talks (11 items), Military Reinforcement & Exercises (10 items), and Russian Military Degradation (6 items). These narratives are currently present in the information space. **Things to Monitor** 1. **GNSS Restoration:** Track the duration and geographic spread of navigation signal degradation. 2. **Estonian Internet Stability:** Monitor for further BGP anomalies or service outages in the .ee domain. 3. **Naval Activity:** Observe maritime movements in the multi-state cluster zones for potential physical interdiction or testing.